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# PHASE 1J-B — JEV Role Evaluation Harness Final Report
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Date | 2026-09-26 |
| Project | `/opt/blob-desk-review/code/` |
| Phase | `phase1j-b-jev-role-evaluation-harness-v1` |
| Control Room | `http://76.13.253.14:8097` |
| Observed commit | none (Blob Desk filesystem-local; not a Git repository) |
| Mode | `EVIDENCE_ONLY` |
| Specs bundle hash | `dde5e018c004efff1717964dd2c1acf78fa12996f02863433667e3ff37b4d385` |
---
## 1. Executive summary
Phase 1J-B built the **offline-first, provider-aware evaluation apparatus** required to test whether JEV adds measurable incremental value beyond EvidenceState + Skeptic + deterministic Policy — **without activating any role and without running the experiments**.
| Item | Result |
|------|--------|
| ARM 0 | Baseline: EvidenceState → Skeptic → Policy |
| ARM A | Baseline + JEV Final Synthesis (`J_FINAL_SYNTHESIS`) |
| ARM B | Deterministic research baseline vs JEV Research Director (`E_RESEARCH_DIRECTOR`) |
| Option C | Placeholder only — `EXP-JEV-AUTOPSY-V1` = `NOT_READY` |
| `EXP-JEV-JUDGE-V1` | **REGISTERED** / readiness **NOT_READY** / evaluations **0** |
| `EXP-JEV-RESEARCH-DIRECTOR-V1` | **REGISTERED** / readiness **NOT_READY** / evaluations **0** |
| `EXP-SKEPTIC-V1` | **Unchanged** hash `f943a23a…eb69b8b7` / evaluations **0** |
| Live JEV role evaluations | **0** |
| Paper fills / live trades | **0** / **0** |
| JEV / Skeptic / Policy / Paper / Live | all **GATED** |
| Tests | **370 passed** (was 341; +29 Phase 1J-B) |
| Integrity audit | **PASS** |
| Accumulation | **ACTIVE** (PRIMARY_N **7**, up from 6 via normal loop) |
**We did not resolve the Phase 1J-A tension by opinion.** The harness exists so Final Synthesis vs Research Director can be measured fairly later.
---
## 2. Phase 1J-A findings carried forward
| Finding | Carry-forward |
|---------|---------------|
| PRIMARY hypothesis | `J_FINAL_SYNTHESIS` |
| SECONDARY hypothesis | `E_RESEARCH_DIRECTOR` |
| Avoid | `I_META_CONTROLLER`, `D_ACTION_SELECTOR` |
| Internal tension | Pairwise preferred Research Director over Final Judge |
| Independent challenge | `DO_NOT_IMPLEMENT_ROLE_YET` |
| Claim strength (noul) | 0.05 — weak; not evidence of value |
| Model provenance | requested `jev-latest` → returned `jev-1.13.0` |
Phase 1J-B treats both roles as **pre-registered experiment hypotheses**, not architecture.
---
## 3. Existing architecture reused
| Component | Reuse |
|-----------|-------|
| `phase1/experiments.py` | `experiment_definitions` / arms / registry; EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 left immutable |
| `phase1/jev/` | Boundary + `UnavailableJevProvider`; no live activation |
| `phase1/policy/` | `PolicyLimits` / `PAPER_POLICY_V1` shared across arms |
| `phase1/evidence_state.py` | Frozen EvidenceState contract |
| `phase1/skeptic/` | SkepticResult shape (fixture stubs only) |
| `phase1/phase1i/*` | Holdout guard, temporal guard, log_loss/Brier/ECE, chronological split fraction |
| `phase1/versions.py` | `DEVELOP_FRACTION=0.60`, `BASELINE_P=0.50`, H1/G1 pins |
| `phase1/promotion.py` | Gate status; components remain GATED |
| `phase1/control_room/` | Read-only dashboard extension |
| `jev_adapter.py` | Not invoked for experiment results (no live primary JEV eval) |
**No parallel research engine** was created for live collection. ResearchAction executor is a cutoff-enforcing simulation layer over existing validation ideas (`temporal_guard`).
---
## 4. Experiment specifications
Artifacts: `data/phase1j_b/experiment_specs.json`, `arms.json`, `query_budget.json`.
### EXP-JEV-JUDGE-V1
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Hypothesis | ARM A improves OOS decision quality/calibration/abstention vs ARM 0 without oracle/lookahead |
| Arms | ARM_0 + ARM_A |
| Primary metric | `log_loss_on_evaluable_binary_outcome` (NOT_EVALUABLE if no registered numeric p) |
| Chronological split | develop 60% / holdout 40%; shuffle forbidden |
| Prompt | `judge-prompt-v1` (hashed) |
| Execute now | **False** |
| Content hash | `ae3a1ac96eb65674c705cdc77a728858f5f64056adf124e8a6f63c5d05f769d1` |
### EXP-JEV-RESEARCH-DIRECTOR-V1
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Hypothesis | JEV research selection yields more USEFUL evidence per budget than deterministic baseline |
| Arms | ARM_B vs ARM_B_BASELINE (same budget/universe/cutoff) |
| Primary metric | `useful_evidence_yield_per_budget` |
| Query budget | `jev-research-query-budget-v1` — max 3 actions/case; no paid APIs |
| Prompt | `research-director-prompt-v1` (hashed) |
| Execute now | **False** |
| Content hash | `c57a8b40d210c65071effbc74dcbbeea1aa3da362913c226baa1fe5e44d11eba` |
### EXP-JEV-AUTOPSY-V1
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Status | **NOT_READY** |
| Requires | `REQUIRES_PAPER_DECISIONS`, `REQUIRES_OUTCOMES` |
| Built | **False** — interface placeholder only; no fake outcomes |
`EXP-SKEPTIC-V1` was **not** mutated (hash verified before/after registration).
---
## 5. ARM 0 baseline
```
EvidenceState (frozen at cutoff)
→ SkepticResult (frozen)
→ deterministic Policy (PAPER_POLICY_V1)
```
- Receives **exactly** the same EvidenceState / cutoff / eligible evidence / chronological partition as other arms.
- Probability = registered `BASELINE_P = 0.50` when evaluable and not abstaining.
- No JEV. No hidden metadata starvation.
---
## 6. ARM A — JEV Final Synthesis
Formal role: `J_FINAL_SYNTHESIS`.
**Inputs (cutoff-bounded):** frozen EvidenceState, SkepticResult, Policy limits, provenance, missingness, uncertainty, temporal cutoff.
**Forbidden:** future outcome/price/volume/social/evidence/decision; post-cutoff information.
**Required output:** `decision_class`, `thesis`, `uncertainty`, `abstain_reason`, `evidence_refs`, `skeptic_refs`, provider/model provenance.
**Cannot:** create facts; modify evidence/Skeptic/Policy; execute; change thresholds/experiment definitions.
**Guards:** temporal leakage fail-closed; outcome fields in role inputs → INVALID; evidence-ref eligibility validation; provider failure distinct from ABSTAIN.
---
## 7. ARM B — JEV Research Director
Formal role: `E_RESEARCH_DIRECTOR`.
**Does not** decide trades. Structured actions only:
`RESEARCH_REQUEST` | `ABSTAIN_RESEARCH` | `NO_USEFUL_RESEARCH`
with research_question, uncertainty_target, evidence_type_required, preferred_sources, query_strategy, priority, stopping_condition, expected_information_gain_rationale, forbidden_information, provenance.
**Rejected:** outcome-seeking / post-cutoff / buy-sell-encoded requests (language + structural checks).
Pipeline: propose → deterministic executor (cutoff/source/budget) → evidence update → downstream baseline.
---
## 8. Research baseline
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Algorithm ID | `deterministic-research-baseline-v1` |
| Uses JEV | **No** |
| Randomness / network | **None** |
| Priority order | identity → source_coverage_gap → missing_timestamp → contradiction_check → independent_source → social_reachability → campaign_coverage |
| Stopping | budget exhausted OR no actionable gaps |
| Hash | stored in `baseline_algorithm_doc()["content_hash"]` |
Comparison is **deterministic research policy vs JEV research policy**, not “do nothing vs JEV”.
---
## 9. Metrics
### ARM A
| Metric | Role | Notes |
|--------|------|-------|
| log_loss (evaluable binary) | PRIMARY | Requires registered numeric p; else **NOT_EVALUABLE** |
| Brier / ECE | DIAGNOSTIC | Same probability gate |
| abstention_quality | DIAGNOSTIC | Counts only — no invented optimal-abstain oracle |
| unsupported_claim_rate | DIAGNOSTIC | Thesis without valid evidence_refs |
| evidence_reference_validity | DIAGNOSTIC | Cited ∩ eligible |
| lookahead_violation_rate | GUARD | Hard-fail if nonzero on scored set |
**No confidence theatre:** verbal “high confidence” is **not** mapped to 0.90. V1 registers **no** verbal→probability conversion (`REGISTERED_CONVERSION_METHOD = None`).
### ARM B
| Metric | Measurability |
|--------|---------------|
| useful_evidence_yield_per_budget | PRIMARY — MEASURABLE_ON_FIXTURES |
| evidence_gap_resolution | when gaps structured |
| independent_source_gain / query_efficiency / duplicate_query_rate / rejected_evidence_rate / post_cutoff_violation_rate | MEASURABLE_ON_FIXTURES |
| source_quality_improvement | **NOT_YET_MEASURABLE** |
| information_value_improvement | **NOT_YET_MEASURABLE** (population IV gate today — no fake IG) |
Operational taxonomy: `USEFUL` / `REDUNDANT` / `CONTRADICTORY` / `LOW_VALUE` / `INVALID` / `POST_CUTOFF` — deterministic classifiers, not LLM-as-sole-judge.
---
## 10. Leakage protections
| Guard | Mechanism |
|-------|-----------|
| Temporal | Reuses `phase1i.temporal_guard` — fail closed |
| ARM A oracle | Outcome/future fields in role inputs → INVALID |
| ARM A refs | Must exist, belong to event, eligible at cutoff, not rejected |
| ARM B lookahead | Regex + structural rejection of outcome-seeking research |
| Holdout | `refuse_holdout_fitting` / `assert_not_holdout` — hard errors |
| Provider failure | `PROVIDER_UNAVAILABLE` / `RATE_LIMITED` / `TIMEOUT` / `SOURCE_FAIL` **≠** empty evidence or silent ABSTAIN |
| Post-cutoff | Sample/action marked `POST_CUTOFF` / INVALID — **no silent repair** |
---
## 11. Provider / model / prompt versioning
| Field | Policy |
|-------|--------|
| Prompt | Versioned text + `prompt_hash`; change ⇒ new experiment version |
| Model requested | Recorded (`jev-latest` in V1 specs) |
| Model returned | Recorded at call time; silent mixing forbidden |
| Mid-experiment model change | Re-version / invalidate — do not blend |
Harness fixture path does **not** call live JEV for experiment results. Any future interface ping must be labeled `PROVIDER_INTERFACE_TEST` and never scored as an experiment result.
---
## 12. Query-budget controls
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| Budget ID | `jev-research-query-budget-v1` |
| Max actions / case | **3** |
| Cost model | default cost 1 / action |
| Paid APIs | **Forbidden** |
| Logging | QueryBudget spend log identical across research arms |
---
## 13. Fixture suite
14 isolated fixtures under `phase1/phase1j_b/fixtures.py`:
clean / insufficient / contradictory / provider failure / missing timestamp / post-cutoff / ambiguous identity / duplicate / valid research / no useful research / research lookahead / JEV malformed / JEV abstention / JEV provider unavailable.
Labels on every fixture: `TEST_FIXTURE`, `NON_PRIMARY`, `NOT_SCIENTIFIC_RESULT`.
**Never enter:** PRIMARY_PROSPECTIVE live population, H1, G1, EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 scoring, `phase1_lab.db` as fixture outputs.
Harness run: `n_fixtures=14`, `live_jev_evaluations=0`, lab mtime unchanged by harness.
---
## 14. Readiness integration
| Experiment | Registration | Readiness | Evaluations | ready_to_execute |
|------------|--------------|-----------|-------------|------------------|
| EXP-JEV-JUDGE-V1 | REGISTERED | NOT_READY | 0 | **False** |
| EXP-JEV-RESEARCH-DIRECTOR-V1 | REGISTERED | NOT_READY | 0 | **False** |
| EXP-JEV-AUTOPSY-V1 | NOT_READY | NOT_READY | 0 | **False** |
**Forbidden auto-state:** `READY_TO_EXECUTE` (never assigned True).
Human authorisation remains separate. Harness existence ≠ scientific readiness.
---
## 15. Control Room changes
Compact read-only section **JEV ROLE EVALUATION**:
- JEV = GATED
- Role hypotheses: Final Synthesis / Research Director = HYPOTHESIS
- Judge / Research Director experiment status
- Option C = NOT_READY
- Current blocker (deterministic text)
No BUY/SELL, no confidence gauges, no flashy scores. Mobile-first layout preserved.
APIs: `/api/phase1j_b`, dashboard payload field `phase1j_b`. Control Room process restarted to load code (accumulation left running).
---
## 16. Tests
| Suite | Result |
|-------|--------|
| `tests/test_phase1j_b_jev_role_evaluation.py` | **29 passed** |
| Full Blob Desk `tests/` | **370 passed** |
Coverage includes: schemas, prompts, model provenance, arm isolation, baseline reproducibility, chronological/holdout, cutoff/post-cutoff, provider failure/malformed/abstention, evidence refs, probability policy, research actions/budget/baseline/lookahead, evaluation-case immutability, fixtures, no primary contamination, no activation, readiness states, CR panel, integrity audit, isolated storage, project isolation markers, accumulation signal.
---
## 17. Scientific-integrity audit
`phase1/phase1j_b/integrity_audit.py` — **PASS**.
Checks: holdout protection, provider-failure distinctness, prompt versioning, no auto READY_TO_EXECUTE, EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 non-mutation, fixture isolation labels, research lookahead rejection, no confidence theatre, AST parse of harness.
Artifact: `data/phase1j_b/integrity_audit.json`.
---
## 18. Live validation
| Check | Observed |
|-------|----------|
| Control Room HTTP | 200 |
| `/api/dashboard` → `phase1j_b` | present; JEV=GATED |
| `/api/phase1j_b` | `ready_to_execute=false`, `live_jev_evaluations=0` |
| SYSTEM_MODE | EVIDENCE_ONLY |
| SKEPTIC / JEV / POLICY / PAPER / LIVE | GATED |
| EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 hash | `f943a23a…` unchanged |
| EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 evaluations | 0 |
| JEV experiment evaluations | 0 |
| paper_fills / paper_orders | 0 / 0 |
| synthetic-looking primary | 0 |
| PRIMARY_N | **7** (accumulation progressed from 6) |
| INFORMATION_VALUE | INSUFFICIENT_DATA |
| Unexpected activation | **None** |
---
## 19. Accumulation continuity
| Item | Status |
|------|--------|
| tmux session `blob-desk-accum` | running |
| `research_loop_state.running` | 1 |
| Heartbeat | fresh (`2026-09-26T15:42:56+00:00` at validation) |
| Control Room running_label | ACTIVE |
| Paid APIs / trading | none |
Accumulation was **not** stopped to build the harness. Only Control Room was restarted to load UI code.
---
## 20. Project isolation
| Check | Result |
|-------|--------|
| Blob Desk only edits | PASS |
| ASKU / Football Picks / FootyFrog / OpenClaw code | not modified by this phase |
| `ASKU_JEV_*` env present on host | **ignored** by Phase 1J-B code (no references) |
| Unrelated nginx/firewall/credentials | untouched |
| Fixture outputs in `phase1_lab.db` | **none** (definitions registered only; evaluations=0) |
Note: host `git status` under `/root/.openclaw/workspace` shows pre-existing ASKU dirty files unrelated to this work; Phase 1J-B did not write into ASKU.
---
## 21. Current readiness of each experiment
| ID | Status |
|----|--------|
| EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 | REGISTERED / NOT_READY / evaluations=0 / **unchanged** |
| EXP-JEV-JUDGE-V1 | **REGISTERED** / **NOT_READY** / evaluations=0 |
| EXP-JEV-RESEARCH-DIRECTOR-V1 | **REGISTERED** / **NOT_READY** / evaluations=0 |
| EXP-JEV-AUTOPSY-V1 | **NOT_READY** (requires paper decisions + outcomes) |
Current blocker:
> Role-evaluation harness registered; experiments NOT_READY — insufficient evaluable outcomes + JEV GATED + human authorisation required
---
## 22. What cannot yet be measured
- Case-level `information_value_improvement` (IV is population-gate today)
- `source_quality_improvement` (no graded source-quality model)
- ARM A log_loss for JEV outputs without a **pre-registered** probability method
- Abstention “quality” as an optimality score (no registered oracle)
- Autopsy incremental value (no paper decisions/outcomes)
- Live primary JEV role incremental value (experiments not authorised / not executed)
---
## 23. Human decisions still required
1. Whether to authorise a **PROVIDER_INTERFACE_TEST** (non-scoring) before any experiment.
2. Whether to pre-register a **probability conversion method** for ARM A (or keep NOT_EVALUABLE for log_loss on JEV outputs).
3. When PRIMARY outcomes become evaluable enough for population readiness — **do not** lower G1/H1/EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 thresholds.
4. Which role experiment to run first (Judge vs Research Director) — **after** harness validation + human review; still not activation of production JEV.
5. Explicit human authorisation for `EXECUTE_EXPERIMENT` — never auto `READY_TO_EXECUTE`.
---
## 24. Exact next step
**Do not activate JEV. Do not execute EXP-JEV-*.**
1. Continue autonomous evidence accumulation until outcome-complete N and information-value diagnostics support human review (existing gates unchanged).
2. Keep EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 first in the scientific queue unless humans explicitly re-prioritise.
3. When humans authorise a JEV role experiment, run **only** against frozen chronological develop (holdout untouched for fitting), with prompt/model hashes locked, using this harness — then compare ARM 0 vs A and/or deterministic research vs B.
4. Resolve the Phase 1J-A Final-Synthesis vs Research-Director tension **only** with those measurements.
Until then: **JEV = GATED**.
---
## Package map
```
phase1/phase1j_b/
schema.py EvaluationCase, ResearchAction, provider states
arms.py ARM 0 / A / B / B-baseline definitions
specs.py EXP-JEV-* pre-registration + hashing
prompts.py versioned role prompts
metrics_judge.py ARM A metrics
metrics_research.py ARM B metrics + catalogue
research_baseline.py deterministic-research-baseline-v1
research_action.py QueryBudget + cutoff executor
leakage.py oracle / lookahead guards
probability.py no confidence theatre
fixtures.py 14 NON_PRIMARY fixtures
harness.py offline fixture harness
readiness.py REGISTERED / NOT_READY only
integrity_audit.py static scientific integrity
storage.py isolated eval DB (refuses phase1_lab.db)
```
---
## Final state checklist
| Requirement | Met |
|-------------|-----|
| SYSTEM_MODE = EVIDENCE_ONLY | ✓ |
| SKEPTIC/JEV/POLICY/PAPER/LIVE = GATED | ✓ |
| EXP-SKEPTIC-V1 unchanged | ✓ |
| EXP-JEV-JUDGE-V1 REGISTERED / NOT_READY | ✓ |
| EXP-JEV-RESEARCH-DIRECTOR-V1 REGISTERED / NOT_READY | ✓ |
| EXP-JEV-AUTOPSY-V1 NOT_READY | ✓ |
| JEV experiment evaluations = 0 | ✓ |
| paper fills = 0 | ✓ |
| live trades = 0 | ✓ |
| PRIMARY_PROSPECTIVE only via normal accumulation | ✓ (N: 6→7) |
| experiment evaluations run in this phase | **0** |
| Role activated | **No** |